As economist Milton Friedman once quipped, monetary policy has a history of operating with “long and variable lags.”[1] What Friedman was expressing is that it takes some time for the true effects of monetary policy, like the changing of the federal funds rate, to permeate…
The latest Producer Price Index, reported by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicated that inputs to residential construction, goods less foods and energy (residential building materials, not seasonally adjusted) increased 1.28% between December 2023 and January 2024. This was the largest monthly change for the…
Consumer prices picked up again in January while core prices remained elevated, especially housing costs. Despite a slowdown in the year-over-year increase, shelter costs continue to put upward pressure on inflation, accounting for over two-thirds of the total increase in all items excluding food and…
According to the latest Producer Price Index report, growth in the average price level of inputs to residential construction less energy (i.e., building materials) fell from 15.0% in 2022 to 1.3% in 2023 (not seasonally adjusted). On a monthly basis, building materials prices rose 0.1% in…
Consumer prices rose again in December, driven by higher energy prices and sticky housing costs. Despite the increase, overall inflation has moderated by nearly half, declining from 6.5% in 2022 to 3.4% by the end of 2023. However, even after peaking in March 2023, shelter…
Consumer confidence jumped to a five-month high as consumers were more optimistic about inflation and the economic outlook. This optimism was primarily driven by slowing inflation, expectations of lower interest rates, and fading fears of recession. The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board,…
According to the latest Producer Price Index report, the price level of inputs to residential construction less energy (i.e., building materials) increased 0.2% in November after declining 0.4% in October (revised, not seasonally adjusted). The index has increased 0.8% (NSA), year-to-date, marking the smallest YTD gain…
